Anyone Concerned about Tropical Storm Noel??

Newbie Joined: 14 Oct 2007 Posts: 2 Location: USA

That map looks really scary!

What with tropical depression 16 heading towards Cayman and Jamaica issuing a tropical storm warning this morning, I am wondering if it would be a stupid move to fly down to Cayman for the next week? If it were just me, I'd not be as concerned, but I don't want to endanger my 3 year old and 1 year old.

Am I overreacting?

Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2007 9:50 am Post subject:

Littlebird,

The chances are pretty good that this will not directly effect Grand Cayman. Almost all models show it heading North of GC.

Even potential development...right now...looks like it will not be that bad.

However, I understand your concern.

sm

TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 2

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL162007

500 AM EDT SUN OCT 28 2007

THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION IS DIFFICULT TO IDENTIFY ON INFRARED OR

NIGHT-VIS IMAGERY. RECENT MICROWAVE PASSES ALSO ARE NOT

CONCLUSIVE...BUT SUGGEST THAT THE DEPRESSION IS CONTINUING ON ITS

PREVIOUS TRACK...WITH AN INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE OF 300/6. DEEP

CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER LACKS ANY APPRECIABLE BANDING...AND A

RECENT ASCAT PASS DOES NOT INDICATE THAT ANY STRENGTHENING HAS

OCCURRED. WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW IMPARTING WESTERLY SHEAR OVER THE

CYCLONE...THE ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT FAVOR MUCH DEVELOPMENT IN THE

SHORT TERM. GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL WASH OUT

IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...LEAVING THE CYCLONE UNDER A LESS HOSTILE

UPPER PATTERN...BUT THE ENVIRONMENT NEVER APPEARS TO BE IDEAL FOR

DEVELOPMENT. IN ADDITION...THERE IS AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR LAND

INTERACTIONS OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT WOULD HINDER

STRENGTHENING. THE GFDL AND HWRF INTENSITY FORECASTS...WHICH

SUGGEST A MORE VERTICALLY-CONNECTED CYCLONE THAN APPEARS TO

EXIST...ARE LARGELY BEING DISCOUNTED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN

GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE LGEM.

Posted: Sun Oct 28, 2007 4:19 pm Post subject:

spiritman is right. This system poses absolutely no threat to the Cayman Islands. Have a great vacation!

Newbie Joined: 14 Oct 2007 Posts: 2 Location: USA

Hello - Any ideas about the extended forecast? We are leaving on Sunday and also don't want to put ourselves in danger.

Thanks

Newbie Joined: 14 Oct 2007 Posts: 2 Location: USA

We're headed out Sunday Nov 4th. Just curious to find out if GC has been or will be affected by Tropical Storm Noel.... Thanks

Posted: Tue Oct 30, 2007 7:08 pm Post subject:

No worries hs...Noel is heading out into the North Atlantic....AWAY from Cayman and...thank God...away from South Florida.

If you have rain it will not be from this storm.

sm

Status Member Joined: 24 Feb 2005 Posts: 765

Hey Heather,

TS Noel is now way northeast of Cayman over Cuba, and will veer off to the northeast after that. No problem for you. Have a great time!

Sue

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 8:04 am Post subject:

Yeah... It's going away. We had lots of wind for the last three days, and a few scattered showers.. not really associated from the storm. Late yesterday and last night we had some showers from the extreme outer bands as it continues to move away. If you want to see the rain activity, you can get a good radar pic at the Camaguey radar site. It's http://www.met.inf.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB0=PLANTILLAS&TB1=RADAR&TB2=../Radar/04Camaguey/cmwMAXw01a.gif

if it is allowed to be posted here.

The seas were so rough on the north side the dive boats were all on the south side yesterday. No wind this morning.

Native Joined: 18 Feb 2005 Posts: 2035 Location: Illinois

spiritman

who's picture is that now? What happened to the rest of the family?

Shelly :-)

Posted: Wed Oct 31, 2007 4:33 pm Post subject:

Got tired of the inconvenience of all those rug rats so I dumped the wife.

That is my new girlfriend and her roommate....

hahahahaha

That is my oldest daughter in the foreground and my beautiful wife in the back. My daughter didn't like that older picture of the family so I put her in the new one. As soon as I get a new pic of the children I will change it out.

Glad you noticed.

sm

Native Joined: 18 Feb 2005 Posts: 2035 Location: Illinois

Ho ho ho

Aren't you the character!!!!!

Very pretty! But I think you need a picture of all the kids and their parents too!

Didn't your daughter go somewhere this summer to assist in midwifery or nursing or something like that--I can't remember exactly what it was....but how did it go for her?

Shelly :-)

Posted: Thu Nov 01, 2007 10:59 am Post subject:

Shelly,

Am working on a new photo of the family.

My oldest was trying to decide between Manila or Peru and this year we chose Peru. She spent 2 weeks in Aquepia working in schools and churches and had a great experience.

Thanks for asking.

sm

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