Hurricane Dean | August 2007 | Photos start page 18

We are supposed to arrive in GC on Saturday. I'm really sweating this stupid storm. Any local knowledge or predictions that will help ease my mind? I'm really gun shy about the hurricanes because my wife and I were in GC the week that Ivan hit and had to leave 4 days early.

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:12 am Post subject:

We are going down tomorrow morning. I'm not excited to see Dean myself.

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:21 am Post subject: ts dean

Any ideas on the weather next week,aug 18th-25, what kind of conditions to expect. Will dive operators go in the rain. What kind of safety measures to take if storm hits island ect. Confused

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:23 am Post subject: possible storw

me either

Travel to the Cayman Islands is expected to return to normal by Wednesday, August 22nd. Be sure to confirm your flight and accommodation prior to arrival.

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:43 am Post subject: storm

thanks this site is great, yall are the nicest people Wink

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:00 pm Post subject:

Thanks, Joe! Guess we'll just have to see what happens Wink

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 12:11 pm Post subject:

Thanks Joe. I pray that it will take that northern turn. We've been looking forward to coming back to GC since 2004. This trip has been planned since mid April. I just pray that it stays away. I'd hate to get there on Saturday and have to come back on Monday. We're supposed to be there til Thurs. Keeping the fingers crossed.

Posted: Tue Aug 14, 2007 5:51 pm Post subject:

Quote from the National Hurricane Center....

"DEAN IS SOUTH OF A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH SHOULD STEER THE CYCLONE TOWARD THE WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE

NEXT FEW DAYS. THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHIFTED SOMEWHAT TO THE WEST AND FASTER COMPARED TO THE 06 UTC RUNS...PERHAPS DUE TO A WEAKER LESS DIGGING TROUGH OFF OF THE U.S. EAST COAST BY DAY 5. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS TO THE LEFT OF AND FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...BUT REMAINS TO THE RIGHT OF THE CONSENSUS OF THE GFS...GFDL...AND HWRF. COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...TRACK SOLUTIONS FOR THE NOGAPS AND ECMWF ARE SLOWER BECAUSE THEY DO NOT APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON DEAN'S FAST INITIAL FORWARD SPEED"

end quote

It is to early to determine whether Dean will be an issue or not. Another 24 to 48 hours will tell us a lot. Chances are good that it will turn North and go way out and up into the Atlantic.(keyword here is "chances")

I have lived in South Florida for a long time and hurricanes are a way of life.

Stick to your travel plans and adjust accordingly and do NOT be a victim of the media that breeds fear....have fun but be realistic.

sm

Newbie Joined: 15 Aug 2007 Posts: 1 Location: NC, US

We are scheduled to arrive in George Town on Tuesday... but who knows with this stupid storm. We're coming via cruise ship from Miami and I'm really starting to stress about Dean now. We live in Southeast North Carolina and some of the forecasts but it turning north and headed to my house, others show it staying west and ruining my vacation. Seems like I just can't win! What's the latest local projection in Cayman?

Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:54 am Post subject:

This morning the chances are greater that Dean will bypass South of Florida and head out into the Gulf but this is still conjecture. We need another 24 to 48 hours to be sure and even then one never knows. I have seen them do flips and loops.

The local Cayman weather forecast (like anywhere in warm water) will not do you much good. They do not know anymore then the NHC.

Here are the lastest (AM, 8/15/07) computer models.

Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:25 am Post subject:

spiritman wrote:

This morning the chances are greater that Dean will bypass South of Florida and head out into the Gulf but this is still conjecture.

It's the "heading out into the Gulf" that's got my attention .... Shock

... think I'll go dust the cobwebs off the shutters today just in case!!

Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:27 am Post subject:

It appears that this storm is headed right at GC. Should we cancel our trip? We are to arrive Sat.

Posted: Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:58 am Post subject:

Hi engrum,

It's hard for any of us to tell you what you should do, but I just think that at this point, the path of this storm is just too uncertain, and not all the models show it heading straight at Cayman. I read an article this morning saying that if it does take the westerly route (which means it would affect the Caymans) that it would come the closest to Grand Cayman at the end of next week. edited to add later - I can't imagine why the article I read said that! It now looks like if it affects Cayman, it would be by Sunday or Monday, not the end of next week! - sorry Embarassed

I know the last time you went to Cayman, you had to leave four days early due to Ivan, and that's why you are dreading this weather forecast. I certainly don't blame you for your fears, but wouldn't it make more sense to wait to cancel until there is more certainty as to its path? I would think that if you cancel now and it turns to the north and doesn't really impact Cayman, then you would forfeit your lodging deposits and pre paid airfare, etc., but if there really is a storm then those might be refunded.

Again, you do what you have to do, but if it were me, I'd wait at least a couple more days to decide to cancel.

Char

Newbie Joined: 02 Aug 2007 Posts: 12

Wednesday August 15, 2007, 9:45M EDT - More south

Just a short note... Dean is forecasted to go more south then earlier anticipated. A big sigh of relief for the northeastern islands, like Antigua, St.Maarten, the Virgin Islands, etc. However, it is bad news for the more southerly islands. Right now Dean is expected to cross the island chain at Martinique. The eye is expected to be there Friday night, with tropical storm winds starting in the afternoon.

Although still just a tropical storm it is expected to become a strong hurricane in 5 days. By that time it should have crossed the island chain already. However, it is forecasted to move towards Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. It is still a bit early since models aren't that accurate that far away in time, but people over there should take notice.

Results for Grand Cayman, Cayman Islands (19.28N, 81.35W):

The eye of the storm is about 2395 miles (3855 km) away. If the system keeps moving at its current speed of 20 mph and directly towards you, it will take around 119.8 hours (Monday, August 20 at 10:48AM AST) to reach you. Given the current windfield (50 miles from the center), tropical storm winds will be felt in 117.3 hours (Monday, 8:18AM AST).

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