Ivan might have been even more powerful than we thought

19:00 04 August 2005

NewScientist.com news service

Jeff Hecht

Striking observations of the effects of Hurricane Ivan ? which swept across the Atlantic in 2004 ? reveals the 100-foot wave which ended the movie The Perfect Storm were no cinematic exaggeration. And new meteorological predictions warn that 2005 may be a bumper year for North Atlantic hurricanes.

Sensors resting at 60- and 90-metre depths in the Gulf of Mexico, off Mississippi, US, measured one wave at 91 feet (28 metres) high and half a dozen waves higher than 50 feet as Ivan passed directly over the waters.

Yet even those impressive measurements missed the peak of the storm, says Bill Teague at the US Naval Research Laboratory branch in Mississippi. At the peak of the Category 4 storm, when sustained winds roared at 140 miles per hour (225 km/hour), he estimates waves reached 130 feet (40 metres).

Hurricane winds whip up high waves over the open ocean, but their heights are notoriously hard to measure because the rough seas inevitably rip the standard buoy instruments loose from their moorings before the peak of the storm.

Barnacle-like sensors

Waves up to 80 feet (24 metres) high have hit offshore oil rigs, but operators thought these were isolated "rogue" waves. But Teague told New Scientist the new measurements suggest that "what's been called a rogue wave may be fairly common in intense storms".

The group used novel sensors that stick like barnacles to the sea floor ? allowing them to survive Ivan?s fury ? to measure wave height by monitoring water pressure. However, each of the six sensors monitored wave height for only 512 seconds each eight hours, so they missed the peak of the storm.

Meanwhile, the US National Weather Service declared on 2 August that 2005?s hurricane season would be ?extremely active?. After recording seven tropical storms in the North Atlantic in June and July, the agency predicts 11 to 14 more storms will develop through to November ? giving a total of 18 to 21 during the season. A total of 9 to 11 are expected to reach hurricane strength. On average there are 10 tropical storms and six hurricanes in the season.

Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:23 pm Post subject:

well, that's cheery :o

We're coming in October ANYWAY! Very Happy

Posted: Thu Aug 04, 2005 6:47 pm Post subject:

I didn't read that last part. Embarassed

If you look at the Cayman Islands in relation to the whole Atlantic it shows what an incredibly minute target we are. I really don't think we're due for at least another 50 or 60 years.

Posted: Fri Aug 05, 2005 6:41 am Post subject:

from your mouth to God's ears.......... Very Happy

Celine

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